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By Marty Pay
MBA, CLU, LUTC-F, contributing writer 

Who stole my crystal ball?

Marty's Musings


July 8, 2023

Marty Pay.

Home builder sentiment is up again, and there is talk of the start of another Bull Market. All the while some prognosticators are telling us a recession is waiting in the wings by the end of the year! Where is my crystal ball to help me wade through the morass of conflicting reports from so many so-called experts?

What would my crystal ball tell me? Would it tell me that 5-7 stocks are leading this Bull Market? Would it tell me I should be worried about the rise in artificial intelligence? Is the market going to go down if something were to happen to the A.I. bubble? Is the A.I. bubble here to stay as we rely more and more on A.I. at the consumer level, not to mention at levels far beyond our understanding?

What about China, is this a concern my crystal ball would warn me about? Is their desire and goal to become the world's leading economy something that might have an effect on my 401k or any part of my retirement? Should I invest in Chinese companies as a hedge against what may be a growing threat? What path do I take? Where is my crystal ball when I really need it?

What strategy do I take when there are so many conflicting ideas and strategies? Do I stay on course or change my retirement plans? What's the answer oh crystal ball? I guess the answer really comes down to one word, time!

What is your time frame? Are you looking at 5, 10, 15 or 20 years before you decide to retire? If your time frame is 5 plus years you can probably weather the ups and downs of the market. Remember markets do what markets will do, they are always trying to anticipate events and be ahead of the curve. If you're looking long term, you have the advantage of riding what may be a bumpy ride coming up knowing the market, as it always does, will come back!

If your horizon is short-term then your perspective is different. Now you may be looking at more conservative actions because you need to protect what you do have not speculate to make a few extra dollars. All the same I wish I had my crystal ball to tell me exactly what road to travel.

Marty Pay is a contributing writer for The Loop newspaper and has been a Financial Planner for years and teaches Finance at a local University. He can be reached at Farmers Insurance in Tehachapi (661) 822-3737.


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