By Tina Fisher Cunningham
Fisher Forde Media
Affordable housing in state's central backbone
The Forde Files No 135
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Copyright 2015 by the California Economic Forecast. Used by permission.
According to the California Economic Forecast, Mark Schniepp, director, the principal regions of housing growth in California will be in the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valley regions, as this is where the most affordable housing is. In the long run, "most of the growth in California will occur inland, principally between Sacramento and Riverside Counties, along the I-5 and Hwy. 99 corridors (see red rectangle).
California's economy is rebounding toward full employment, according to the Caltrans-California Economic Forecast 2016-2050 County-Level Forecast, Mark Schniepp, director.
"In 2017, the big story in the California labor market will be 'full employment,'" the forecast says.
"Since the beginning of the Great Recession in 2007, the unemployment rate has been elevated with a large number of job seekers unable to find work. But in 2017, the unemployment rate in California will average 4.9 percent, and almost everyone who wants a job will be able to find one. This will force companies to compete for the best employees by offering higher salaries and better benefits, leading to faster statewide wage gains. Average salaries will rise by 4.5 percent in 2017 and 4.9 percent in 2018."
Residents will look to the inland Central Valley backbone of California to find affordable housing.
"The inland areas of the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys are now participating in both the labor market and housing recoveries because there is a dearth of housing in Coastal California, and inland areas represent the most affordable locations for new housing."
Planning agencies need to be on the lookout for unexpected growth and take steps to stay ahead of the demand for housing.
"An unprecedented level of housing build-out might be required to support long term economic growth, including population growth," the forecast says.
Through 2020, an average of 4,000 housing permits will be issued in Kern County.
The forecast suggests that environmental constraints and challenges are possible deterrents to sufficient housing growth.
"More than 12,000 new homes could be built at the base of the Grapevine," the forecast says, "but the environmental review process could delay or cancel the project."
While some counties have experienced a population decrease due to out-migration (people moving out), Kern County's population is growing. Kern's net in-migration from 2009 to 2014 was negative, yet the population grew at the rate of one percent a year due to natural increase (births).
The forecast predicts between 2016 and 2018, net in-migration to Kern County will average 5,038 annually.
The forecast's chart showing population growth under the "Compound Annual Rate of Growth (percent), 2015-2018" formula, Kern County ranks seventh behind No. 1 Imperial County, followed by Riverside, San Joaquin, Stanislaus, Contra Costa and Fresno.
The forecast predicts that Riverside County will lead the state in total in-migration, with an average of 52,695 annually. Other high net in-migration counties are Santa Clara, Contra Costa, Sacramento, Alameda, Orange, San Diego, San Joaquin, San Francisco and Los Angeles.
A note under the population chart says: "Total population growth will be the most prolific in the Central Valley, driven by a younger resident base with a high expected birth rate."
Concurrently, the "Real Taxable Sales Growth" forecast figured under the same formula, places Kern County fifth behind Sierra, Placer, San Bernardino and Napa counties, and ahead of Riverside.
Santa Barbara-based Schniepp prepared the forecast for the Transportation Economics Branch, Office of State Planning of the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans).
